The global expansion weakened somewhat in the third quarter while the downside risks have increased. DIW Berlin’s forecast- almost unchanged-indicates an expansion in global economic production of 4.3 percent for 2018 and 3.9 percent for 2019. In 2020, momentum will slow down further to 3.6...

The ongoing trade conflicts initiated by the US and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit are negatively affecting the global economy. Global trade and investment activity, and thus in many places industrial output, are the areas most impacted. Consumption, however, is continuing to support the...

The global economy is holding steady amidst uncertainty, although subdued export and investment growth in some places is already proving the extent to which protectionism and the unresolved trade conflicts are negatively affecting the economy. Contributing to the uncertainty is the continued...

This paper investigates the trade-off between timeliness and quality in nowcasting practices. This trade-off arises when the frequency of the variable to be nowcast, such as GDP, is quarterly, while that of the underlying panel data is monthly; and the latter contains both survey and...

The global economy is likely to grow by over four percent this year and somewhat less next year. DIW Berlin has slightly raised its forecast for both years. Developed economies as well as emerging markets are experiencing an upturn; however, growth rates are likely to be slightly lower in the...

The paper compares the most closely watched sentiment indicators with respect to their ability to nowcast quarterly GDP dynamics in the Euro Area and its biggest economies. We analyse cross-correlations and out-of-sample forecast errors generated from equations estimated by rolling regressions...