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This paper examines the frequency-domain implications of the serial correlation common feature in order to evaluate its merits as an indicator of common business cycles among economic variables. It is shown that the presence of the serial correlation common feature in the first differences of a...
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Business cycles and economic growth have long been studied separately, hindering understanding of the nature and causes of economic fluctuations and growth. Here, we present an economic model that incorporates both deterministic trends and persistent fluctuations, derived from a general economic...
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This paper extends the family of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models by proposing a speci.cation in which … within a regime switching framework, but in contrast to the time varying STAR (TV-STAR) speci.cation introduced by Lundbergh … et al (2003), structural change in our random walk STAR (RW-STAR) setting follows a stochastic process rather than a …
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Using data from Germany, Japan, UK, and the U.S., we explore possible threshold cointegration in nominal short- and long-run interest rates with corresponding inflation rates. Traditional cointegration implies perfect mean reversion in real rates and hence confirms the Fisher hypothesis....
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