We analyze the role of fiscal policy and intra-European trade in business cycle synchronization in the EU for the period 1995-2008. There is a broad consensus that the relationship between fiscal policy and business cycle comovements and between trade integration and cyclical synchronization are...

We examine the potential gains of using exchange rate forecast models and forecast com- bination methods in the management of currency portfolios for three exchange rates, the euro (EUR) versus the US dollar (USD), the British pound (GBP) and the Japanese yen (JPY). We use a battery of...

Martin Ravallion ("Why Don't We See Poverty Convergence?" American Economic Review, 102(1): 504-23; 2012) presents evidence against the existence of proportionate convergence in global poverty rates despite convergence in household mean income levels and the link between income growth and poverty...