The aim of this study is to predict the Turkish Lira’s exchange rate against the US Dollar by combining models . As a result, the authors include three univariate forecasting models: ARIMA, Naive, and Exponential smoothing, and one multivariate model: NARDL for the first time with Artificial...

We find that the level of the exchange rate appears to have strong forecasting power for dollar exchange rates against major currencies post-2000 at medium and long horizons in-sample and out-of-sample, using conventional asymptotic statistics correcting for serial correlation biases and...