We propose an empirical framework to assess the likelihood of joint and conditional sovereign default from observed CDS prices. Our model is based on a dynamic skewed-t distribution that captures all salient features of the data, including skewed and heavytailed changes in the price of CDS...

We present a simple new methodology to allow for time-variation in volatilities using a recursive updating scheme similar to the familiar RiskMetrics approach. It exploits the link between exponentially weighted moving average and integrated dynamics of score driven time varying parameter...

On December 16th of 2015, the Fed initiated "liftoff," raising the federal funds rate range by 25 basis points and ending a 7-year regime of near-zero rates. We use a unique dataset of 640,000 loan-hour observations to measure the impact of liftoff on interest rates in the peer-to-peer lending...