We use a Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR with stochastic volatility for GDP deflator inflation, real GDP growth, a 3-month nominal rate, and the rate of growth of M4 to investigate the underlying causes of the Great Moderation in the United Kingdom. Our evidence points towards a...

This paper applies principles of the New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) to questions of international trade and financial adjustment. The analytical framework is a 2-country, 2-good, 2-period model designed to explore the behavior of the balance of payments, the terms of trade, and aggregate...

We fit a Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR with stochastic volatility to the Federal Funds rate, GDP deflator inflation, real GDP growth, and the rate of growth of M2. We identify 4 shocksmonetary policy, demand non-policy, supply, and money demandby imposing sign restrictions on...

"This paper re-considers the empirical relevance of the Lucas critique using a DSGE sticky price model in which a weak central bank response to inflation generates equilibrium indeterminacy. The model is calibrated on the magnitude of the historical shift in the Federal Reserve's policy rule and...