This paper uses granular customs data from France to investigate propagation of the COVID-19 shock along the supply chains in 2020. It quantifies the effect of the COVID-19 shock on trade adjustment and identifies mitigating and amplifying factors contributing to French firms' heterogeneous...

With China''s accession to the WTO in 2001, Russia is by far that organization''s most prominent nonmember. This paper applies the gravity model to gauge whether this ""outsider"" status has been affecting Russia''s export structure. On the basis of cross-section and panel regressions for...

This paper examines the impact of European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on trade within the euro area. Using panel data for 22 industrial countries, the analysis estimates the effect of the euro''s arrival on area-wide trade compared to bilateral trade flows between other industrial...

Countries that trade more with each other exhibit higher business cycle correlation. This paper examines the mechanisms underlying this relationship using a large cross-country industry-level panel dataset of manufacturing production and trade. We show that sector pairs that experience more...

Although Europe in the aggregate is a not a major contributor to global current account imbalances, its trade and financial linkages with the rest of the world mean that it will still be affected by a shift in the current configuration of external deficits and surpluses. We assess the...

This paper studies the potential effects of geoeconomic fragmentation (GEF) in the sub-Saharan Africa region (SSA) through quantifying potential long-term economic costs. The paper considers two alternative GEF scenarios in which trade relations are fully or partially curtailed across world...

Do political regimes determine how geopolitics influence international trade? This paper provides an empirical answer to the question by analyzing the joint impact of democracy and geopolitical distance between countries with an augmented gravity model of bilateral trade flows and an extensive...

Are we really witnessing the death of globalization? A multitude of shocks over the past three years has unsettled the conventional wisdom on economic integration and fueled widespread calls for protectionist and nationalist policies. Using an extensive dataset with more than 4 million...

This work explains how the ideas of nationalist economists and policy makers have shaped the world economy for more than two centuries. It shows how nationalists have built transnational networks to disseminate their creed, exploiting inequality, financial crises and ethnic divisions to form the...