This paper incorporates deflation in an analysis of the relationship between the exchange rate pass-through and inflation. Using a nonlinear model based on monthly data of Taiwan's import prices from 1981 to 2008, we find that the degree of exchange rate pass-through is increasing in deflation....

The Asian financial crisis broke out in Thailand in July 1997, and rapidly spread throughout the neighboring countries. An important question then arises? Is it possible to predict next financial crisis? If yes, then what are the predictors? The answer lies in combined usage of economic theory...

Transfer function or distributed lag models are commonly used in forecasting. The stability of a constant-coefficient transfer function model, however, may become an issue for many economic variables due in part to the recent advance in technology and improvement in efficiency in data collection...