This paper analyses identification for multivariate unobserved components models in which the innovations to trend and cycle are correlated. We address order and rank criteria as well as potential non-uniqueness of the reduced-form VARMA model. Identification is shown for lag lengths larger than...

Two different types of tests for the cointegrating rank of VAR processes with a deterministic shift in the level have been proposed in the literature. The first proposal is based on the LR principle using a specific Gaussian model set-up. In the second proposal the time series are adjusted for...

After a temporary period of a fixed exchange rate regime pegging the Polish zloty to the U.S. dollar, Poland established a preannounced crawling peg regime on October 15, 1991. In this system the zloty is tied to a currency basket and devalued with a preannounced monthly rate (rate of crawl). If...

The properties of a range of maximum eigenvalue and trace tests for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive process are compared. The tests are alilikelihood ratio type tests and operate under different assumptions regarding the deterministic part of the data generation process. The...

A systems cointegration rank test is proposed which is applicable for vector autoregressive (VAR) processes with a structural shift at unknown time. The structural shift is modeled as a simple shift in the mean of the process. It is proposed to estimate the break date first on the basis of a...

In this paper I analyse the effects of ignoring level shifts in the data generating process (DGP) on systems cointegration tests that do not accommodate level shifts. I consider two groups of Likelihood Ratio tests based on procedures suggested by Johansen (1988, 1995) and Saikkonen & Lütkepohl...

We bring together some recent advances in the literature on vector autoregressive moving-average models creating a relatively simple specification and estimation strategy for the cointegrated case. We show that in the cointegrated case with fixed initial values there exists a so-called final...

We investigate the small-sample size and power properties of bootstrapped likelihood ratio systems cointegration tests via Monte Carlo simulations when the true lag order of the data generating process is unknown. A recursive bootstrap scheme is employed. We estimate the order by minimizing...

A test for the cointegrating rank of a vector autoregressive (VAR) process with a possible shift and broken linear trend is proposed. The break point is assumed to be known. The setup is a VAR process for cointegrated variables. The tests are not likelihood ratio tests but the deterministic...

The implied volatility of a European option as a function of strike price and time to maturity forms a volatility surface. Traders price according to the dynamics of this high dimensional surface. Recent developments that employ semiparametric models approximate the implied volatility surface...