Economic forecasts are quite essential in our daily lives, which is why many research institutions periodically make and publish forecasts of main economic indicators. We ask (1) whether we can consistently have a better prediction when we combine multiple forecasts of the same variable and (2)...

Econometric analyses of treatment response commonly use instrumental variable (IV) assumptions to identify treatment effects. Yet the credibility of IV assumptions is often a matter of considerable disagreement, with much debate about whether some covariate is or is not a 'valid instrument' in...

We examine the implications of arbitrage in a market with many assets. The absence of arbitrage opportunities implies that the linear functionals that give the mean and cost of a portfolio are continuous; hence there exist unique portfolios that represent these functionals. The mean variance...

This study presents a general methodology for fitting multiple time series models to panel data. The basic statistical framework considered here consists of a dynamic simultaneous equation model where disturbances follow a permanent-transitory scheme with transitory components generated by a...

This paper formulates an empirical model of consumption and labor supply that explicitly incorporates income taxes in a multiperiod setting. This model relies on few assumptions and provides a robust framework for estimating parameters needed to predict the response of consumption and hours of...

This paper formulates and estimates a structural life cycle model of labor supply. Using theoretical characterizations derived from an economic model of life cycle behavior, a two-stage empirical analysis yields estimates of intertemporal and uncompensated substitution effects which provides the...

Based on social security data, this paper analyzes wage trends for full employed males by estimating (censored) quantile regressions as functions of age, cohort, education, and year. We test whether a parsimonious specification separating life cycle effects from macroeconomic effects can...