I employ a parsimonious model with learning but without conditioning information to extract time-varying measures of market-risk sensitivities, pricing errors and pricing uncertainty. Parameters estimated for U.S. equity portfolios show significant fluctuations, along patterns that change across...

The theme of this paper is whether there was a textbook-like Phillips curve in post- WWII Italy. We estimate a standard model of the relationship between inflation and the level of real economic activity over the 1949 to 1998 period and find no evidence of a significant and positive feedback...

"We estimate forward-looking interest rate rules for five large Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development economies, allowing for time variation in the responses to macroeconomic conditions and in the variance of the policy rate. Conventional constant parameter reaction functions...

In this paper, we empirically assess the impact of government debt on two key determinants of long-term growth, i.e., private investment and productivity, on a panel of 20 OECD economies from 1970 to 2009. Our main finding is that high public debts are followed by significant and linear declines...

The recent observed decline of business cycle variability suggests that broad macroeconomic risk may have fallen as well. This may in turn have some impact on equity risk premia. We investigate the latent structures in the volatilities of the business cycle and stock market valuations by...

Since the seminal work of Oates (1972) on scal federalism, a central question of public finance has been which level of a federation should be as- signed the provision of public goods. In this paper we study the problem of a government that is to choose the optimal...

type="main" xml:lang="en" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>I employ a parsimonious model with learning, but without conditioning information, to extract time-varying measures of market-risk sensitivities, pricing errors and pricing uncertainty. The evolution of these quantities has interesting implications for...</p>

Estimate the impact of public debt on productivity and investments Empirical analysis, panel data, threshold models Debt impacts negatively on the determinants of growth There is evidence of asymmetric effects

We explore the time variation of factor loadings and abnormal returns in the context of a four-factor model. Our methodology, based on an application of the Kalman filter and on endogenous uncertainty, overcomes several limitations of competing approaches used in the literature. Besides taking...

The information content of broad money M3 for future GDP inflation in the euro area is investigated from a number of perspectives. Firstly, tests that money does not Granger-cause prices are conducted within a cointegrated VAR system comprising real M3 holdings, real GDP, inflation and short-...