The issue of 'trade and exchange rate misalignments' is being discussed at the G20, IMF and WTO, following an initiative by Brazil. The main purpose of this paper is to apply the methodology developed by the authors to exam the impacts of misalignment on tariffs in order to analyze the impacts...

The rational expectation hypothesis is widely used in finance and macroeconomics. A natural research question comprises investigating whether models that use this hypothesis can fit the data well. Researchers have been developing econometric procedures to test rational expectation models....

This paper aims to test the current account approach for UK and USA data. In order to do this it's used Johansen, S. and A. R. Swensen (1999) methodology to test exactly a restriction implied by a rational expectation model. All the parameters are estimated directly from the econometric model...

The Present Value Model (PVM) – in which current security prices depend upon the present value of future discounted dividends, where the discount rate is equivalent to the required rate of return – is one of the long-standing principles of Finance Theory. The objective of this work is to...

Economic forecasting during structural breaks is challenging due to the possible systematic failure of existent models. Robust forecast devices are able to provide unbiased forecasts just after structural change but at the cost of higher variance in normal times. Reinforcement learning (RL)...

This paper discusses the non-market-economy status of China based on the behavior of Brazilian imports originated from China after the imposition of anti-dumping (AD) duties. More specifically, we investigate whether imports from China react differently to the imposition of AD duties compared to...

The debate on “exchange wars and trade wars” is raising the attention of experts on international trade and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on one of the most traditional trade policy instruments – tariffs, as defined by...

Este trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar em que medida a taxa de câmbio real é um condicionante importante para a evolução do quantum exportado brasileiro. Para tanto, é testada a existência de alguma relação entre variações na taxa de câmbio real e variações no quantum exportado, a...

Este artigo busca verificar em que medida o saldo comercial responde a alterações de preços relativos no período recente. O período estudado abrange os anos de 1980 a 2004. Busca-se também avaliar em que medida a relação encontrada entre saldo comercial e taxa de câmbio real manteve-se...