In dem Bericht wird das Herbstgutachten der sechs Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute über die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Herbst 2002 dargestellt. Die Unsicherheit über den Fortgang der Weltkonjunktur hat sich unter dem Eindruck des Irak-Konfliktes, des damit...

In this paper we propose a relatively simple procedure to predict Euro-zone industrial production using mostly data derived from the business surveys of the three major economies within the European Monetary Union (France, Germany, and Italy). The basic idea is that of estimating business...

This paper examines whether data from business tendency surveys are useful for forecasting the macro economy (GDP, unemployment, price and wage inflation, interest rates, exchange-rate changes etc.) in the short run. The starting point is a so-called dynamic factor model (DFM), which is used...

Since September 2004, Insee has published the results of its business survey in the services sector on a monthly basis together with a synthetic indicator. This indicator is extracted from both monthly and quarterly balances of opinion derived from the survey. The methodological framework is...