A full Bayesian analysis of GARCH and EGARCH models is proposed consisting of parameter estimation, model selection and volatility prediction. The Bayesian paradigm is implemented via Markov-chain Monte Carlo methodologies. We provide implementation details and illustrations using the General...

A prediction model is any statement of a probability distribution for an outcome not yet observed. This study considers the properties of weighted linear combinations of n prediction models, or linear pools, evaluated using the conventional log predictive scoring rule. The log score is a concave...

This paper introduces a new family of Bayesian semi-parametric models for the conditional distribution of daily stock index returns. The proposed models capture key stylized facts of such returns, namely heavy tails, asymmetry, volatility clustering, and leverage. A Bayesian nonparametric prior...