Categorization is essential to everyday cognition, aiding in the organization and comprehension of information and salient stimuli. In many cases, we partake in the process of "lumping" and "splitting," where similar items are lumped together, while dissimilar items are split apart in an...

Professional forecasters can rely on an econometric model to create their forecasts. It is usually unknown to what extent they adjust an econometric model-based forecast. In this paper we show, while making just two simple assumptions, that it is possible to estimate the persistence and variance...

Operational risk management remains a major concern for financial institutions. Indeed, institutions are bound to manage their own funds to hedge this risk. In this paper, we propose an approach to allocate one's own funds based on a combination of historical data and expert opinion using the...