This paper challenges the conventional view that foreign exchange risk premiums are small, not volatile, and unrelated to macroeconomic variables. For the Italian lira (1987-94), unconditional risk premiums—constructed using survey data to measure exchange rate expectations—are found to be...

This paper compares the experience with exchange-rate–based stabilization (ERBS) of four Western European countries with that of high-inflation developing countries. In general, the behavior of key macroeconomic variables—inflation, output, demand, the real exchange rate and the current...

Italy’s pension system was reformed in August 1995. The new system has various desirable long-run properties and, overall, it represents an improvement over earlier systems. However, it fails to address two longstanding problems: extremely high contribution rates, and a lack of provisions for...

This paper draws some lessons about policies toward the current account from Italy’s balance of payments history between 1960 and 1988. The key role of speculative capital flows during every major episode of external imbalance brings out the limitations of exchange rate rules that focus...

This paper presents an empirical model to study the response of wages and prices to movements in the nominal exchange rate. A four-equation model is applied to Italian data to evaluate the response of tradeable goods prices, consumer prices, and wages following the lira’s exit from the ERM in...

This paper discusses the relation between the financial structure and the determination of bank lending rates in Italy. It notes that the high degree of stickiness of bank lending rates observed in Italy in the past was related to constraints on competition within the banking and financial...

This paper examines the determinants of Italian unemployment by estimating and utilizing a structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Both long-run and short-run macroeconomic determinants of unemployment are examined; the latter are analyzed in much greater detail than is customary in the...

Under free capital mobility, a high-inflation country pursuing a nonaccommodating exchange rate policy will have higher real interest rates than its lower-inflation trading partners as long as that policy is not credible. If the policy gains credibility prior to inflation convergence, the sign...

This paper analyzes the choice between public debt denominated in domestic currency and foreign currency in the context of public debt management theories. It discusses the experience of Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, Italy, New Zealand and Sweden and relates it to the theoretical arguments in favor...

The paper surveys three broad categories of labor market institutions in Italy: employment protection legislation, unemployment benefit systems, and wage bargaining arrangements. In each case, the recent evolution and current state of Italian institutions are evaluated and compared with those in...