This paper develops upon the Keynesian theory of demand-led growth in order to provide an analytical framework conducive to explaining economic growth and development in concrete terms consistent with the fundamental idea that growth in output and employment is determined by the growth in...

We propose a novel combination of algorithms for jointly estimating parameters and unobservable states in a nonlinear state space system. We exploit an approximation to the marginal likelihood to guide a Particle Marginal Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. While this algorithm seemingly targets...

This empirical note provides updated empirical evidence regarding whether a higher inflation rate of real prices on crude oil and whether real oil price shocks led to higher domestic inflation in the U.S. over the 1965-2012 period. Using autoregressive two stage least squares estimation, the...

This paper argues that Thomas Tooke's (1773--1858) most important legacy to economics is not his conception of "endogenous money", however important, but is instead his original proposition that the long-run "average" rate of interest entered into the normal cost of production and, therefore,...

In 1823, William Blake (1774-1852) published the pamphlet Observations of the Effects Produced by the Expenditure of Government during the Restriction of Cash Payments, which made a significant contribution to debate about the economic effects of government fiscal policy during the French wars...

In a real business cycle model, an agent's fear of model misspecification interacts with stochastic volatility to induce time varying worst case scenarios. These time varying worst case scenarios capture a notion of animal spirits where the probability distributions used to evaluate decision...