Applying basic statistical methods to a large sample of currency crises, it is shown that a variety of measures of monetary policy are significantly related to the outcome of a speculative attack. Unlike in the comparable study of Kraay (1999), discount rates have a significant but...

A key challenge for macroeconomic policy in open economies is how to simultaneously manage exchange rates, interest rates and capital account openness - the trilemma. This paper calculates a trilemma index for India and investigates its evolution over time. We find that financial integration has...

This paper analyzes the effects of pegged and floating exchange rates using a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model that is calibrated to the U.S. and a European aggregate. The model assumes shocks to money, productivity and the interest parity condition. It captures the fact that the...

Floating exchange rates seem to be gaining ground in Latin America, East Asia and the transition economies. The recent crises left many economies with no alternative but to float. Others have moved toward floating, searching for greater flexibility and insulation from external shocks. The...

This paper investigates the relationship between international interest rate differentials and the risk premium during the 1997-1998 Asian crisis. Variables standing for the accumulation of imbalances in the monetary sector are used as proxies for the risk premium. We show,using a Vector Error...

We examine the economic consequences of an interest-bearing design of the Central-Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), and extend the discussion to an open-economy context with trade and capital flows. We use a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to simulate a baseline scenario with...

This paper examines the macro-spanning hypothesis for bond returns in international markets. Based on a large panel of real-time macro variables that are not subject to revisions, wefind that global macro factors have predictive power for bond returns unspanned by yield factors.Furthermore, we...

We study domestic and international drivers of long-term interest rates using newly compiled financial market data for Switzerland starting in 1852. We use a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model to estimate long-term trends in nominal interest rates, exchange rate growth, and...