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consumption and leisure. Output volatility is comparable with a rational expectations analysis with a standard deviation of … technology shock that is 20 percent smaller, and has substantially more volatility in investment and hours. Persistence in these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012770876
consumption and leisure. Output volatility is comparable with a rational expectations analysis with a standard deviation of … technology shock that is 20 percent smaller, and has substantially more volatility in investment and hours. Persistence in these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464466
This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters' data. We consider both inflation and real GDP growth forecasts at the micro level and explore forecast uncertainty using two alternative measures, i.e. conventional standard deviation of individual point forecasts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013064553
This study introduces a novel index based on expectations concordance for explaining stock-price volatility when novel … market volatility. Lower expectations concordance produces a stabilizing effect wherein the offsetting views reduce market … volatility. The empirical findings hold for ex post and ex ante measures of volatility and for OLS and GARCH estimates. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795039
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009304223
We investigate an impact of oil-price shocks on GDP and exchange rate dynamics in resource-heterogeneous economies. We employ a Markov regime-switching version of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to allow for regime shifts, non-linear effects and timevarying parameters of the VAR process....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013369064
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000625631
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000627328
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