We extend the analysis of Christoffersen and Diebold (1998) on long-run forecasting in cointegrated systems to multicointegrated systems. For the forecast evaluation we consider several loss functions, each of which has a particular interpretation in the context of stock-flow models where...

In this paper we present explanation on the phenomenon pointed out in Cook and Manning (2002) on the unusual behaviour of the Dickey-Fuller test in the presence of trend misspecification. It appears that the rejection frequency of the unit root tests in the presence of trend misspecification is...

We present a model of takeover where the target optimally sets its reserve price. Under relatively standard symmetry restrictions, we obtain a unique equilibrium. The probability of takeover is only a function of the number of firms and of the insiders' share of total industry gains due to the...

Can a growing welfare state induce a regime switch in the growth rate of an economy? This paper constructs a dynamic political economy model of economic growth and the welfare state in which both variables are non-linearly related and jointly endogenous. Using a Markov switching framework over...

This paper illustrates the representation of induced technological change in the multi-regional, multi-sectoral integrated assessment model WIAGEM. The main aim of this paper is to investigate quantitatively economic impacts of climate policy measures due to induced technological changes that...

Russia's foreign debt problems worsened substantially after the financial crisis of 1998. The paper focuses on the key role of the government in servicing foreign debt and promoting institution building by showing how foreign debt influences the choice between official and unofficial taxation....

[Inhaltsverzeichnis] 1. Lohnspreizung - Ein gesellschaftspolitisches Problem 2. Theoretische Erklärungsansätze zur Lohnspreizung 2.1. Einfaches Arbeitsmarktmodell mit homogenen Arbeitsangebot 2.2. Einfaches Arbeitsmarktmodell mit heterogenen Arbeitsangebot 2.3. trade-off-Hypothese zwischen...

Design-based estimators of totals, means or proportions in finite populations generally are functions of weighted sums. If each element selected into the sample is also observed, then for the calculation of the pi-estimator these weights are just the inverse inclusion probabilities of the...

In this paper, a weight is derived for the calculation of design based estimators of totals, means and proportions using the ongoing German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) and a new cross-sectional sample. In the first part of the paper, the selection schemes of the subsamples A, B, C and D of the...

Options for reforming unfunded public pension schemes that are now being discussed all share the feature that the burden induced by demographic change would be shifted towards presently living and away from unborn generations. Existing models of the political economy of pension reform can not...