This article demonstrates how options on federal funds futures, which began trading in March 2003, can be used to recover the implied probability density function (PDF) for future Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest‐rate outcomes. The discrete nature of the choices made by the FOMC...

The financial crisis has made it all too clear that regulators failed to see into the dark corners of the financial system. With that in mind, the Federal Reserve Banks of Cleveland and Atlanta have formed a Financial Monitoring Team to study pension funds and municipal finance with an eye...

Federal Reserve policymakers have expressed their support for ultimately shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet and returning the composition of its portfolio to only Treasury securities. Policymakers also favor returning to a fed-funds-rate-targeting procedure or something quite similar. While Fed...

An examination of recent empirical research on money demand, which states that the interest elasticity of money demand is greater than most economists previously thought. The author discusses the policy implications of this research for both the M1 and M2 measures.

An analysis of the recent weakness in M2 growth that attempts to measure the opportunity cost of the aggregate more accurately and that explores the potential effects of the thrift industry restructuring on the adjustment of money demand to its long-run equilibrium level.

An analysis of how federal funds futures markets are efficient processors of information concerning the future path of the fed funds rate and a discussion of some related implications for central-bank policymaking.

Large swings in stock prices are sometimes associated with a redirection of household savings flows. Such changes can lead to transitory increases in M2 as investors temporarily “park” funds in depository assets while they determine the funds’ ultimate destination. The authors find that,...

An examination of the behavior of bank deposit yields and a discussion of some implications for deposit variability and for the interpretation of money growth in the wake of deregulation and other changes in the financial industry in the early 1980s.

An examination of the extraordinary growth of domestic nonfinancial debt since 1982 and a discussion of policy issues raised by its relation to the stability of the financial system.