An examination of how to assess the inflationary effects of current monetary policy, reviewing the behavior of a selected measure of core inflation over the past decade and contrasting this pattern with the inflation expectations of both households and professional forecasters, concluding that...

An explanation of P-Star, evaluating its usefulness both as an indicator of potential inflation and as a method of assessing the Federal Reserve's long-term goal of price stability.

An assessment of the usefulness of a real-interest-rate guidepost for communicating long-term monetary policy intentions to the public. The author contends that because of inherent complexities in the relationship between real interest rates and policy objectives, a policy framework expressed in...

An examination of the small-sample properties of nonparametric changepoint tests using Monte Carlo analysis to investigate the probabilities of false-positive tests under alternative assumptions about the time-series properties of the underlying process. ; An analysis of whether depositor...

This paper demonstrates how options on federal funds futures, which began trading in March 2003, can be used to recover the implied probability density function (PDF) for future Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate outcomes. The discrete nature of the choices made by the FOMC...

There is strong evidence of a stable “money demand” relationship for MZM and M2 through the 1990s. Though the M2 relationship breaks down somewhere around 1990, evidence has been accumulating that the disturbance is well characterized as a permanent upward shift in M2 velocity that began...

This article demonstrates how options on federal funds futures, which began trading in March 2003, can be used to recover the implied probability density function (PDF) for future Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest‐rate outcomes. The discrete nature of the choices made by the FOMC...

This paper develops an adaptive learning formulation of an extension to the Ball, Mankiw, and Reis (2005) sticky information model that incorporates endogenous inattention. We show that, following an exogenous increase in the policymaker’s preferences for price vs. output stability, the...

If valuation ratios return to their historical means any time soon, then equity prices must fall substantially, or earnings and dividends must accelerate sharply, or some combination of these events must occur. Historical patterns over the past century suggest that stock prices will fall to...