This paper presents an empirical analysis of the medium- and long-term determinants of the real (effective) exchange rate (RER) of the Bulgarian lev using elements from the natural real exchange rate (NATREX) and the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approaches. The results indicate...

The staff report for the Second Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Requests for Waiver of Performance Criteria highlights Bulgaria’s economic growth, fiscal policy, and reforms. The economic program for 2006 relies on fiscal and credit restraint to rein in demand and strengthen the...

This paper discusses Bulgaria’s prospects for converging to the living standards of the more advanced members of the European Union (EU). The unfavorable economic environment of the early 1990s and the economic crisis in 1996–97 hurt Bulgaria’s output, employment, and investment. Following...

This Selected Issues paper for Bulgaria highlights that the rapid credit expansion has not raised significant financial stability issues, but has been a key factor in the sharp weakening of the external current account. Although the deficit has been mostly financed by foreign direct investment...

The current account deficit in Bulgaria, which doubled in 2005 to 11.8 percent of GDP, deteriorated further to 14.6 percent of GDP during the first four months of 2006. The current account deficit continues to be substantially financed by foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. Fiscal policy has...