This paper is based closely on the author's Y. C. Jao lecture presented to the Hong Kong Economic Association in November 1998.

To measure the economic effects of political movements in China a simple econo-metric model is constructed. Investment is determined by a central planner maximizing a multiperiod objective function. Political events are modeled by exogenous changes in the shocks to productivity and to investment...

We construct a structural econometric model to measure partially the economic effects of political movements in China.