Banks' living wills involve both recovery and resolution. Since it may not always be clear when recovery plans or actions should be triggered, there is a role for an objective metric to trigger recovery. We outline how such a metric could be constructed meeting criteria of (i) adequate loss...

1. Introduction -- 2. China: A Historic Mobilization Ends -- 3. The Great Demographic Reversal and its Effect on Future Growth -- 4. Dependency, Dementia and the Coming Crisis of Caring -- 5. The Likely Resurgence of Inflation -- 6. The Determination of (Real) Interest Rates during the Great...

The experience of historical episodes of financial crises in the late 19th and early 20th century, and also more recent episodes of boom and bust cycles in credit markets suggest that the build up of financial imbalances is reflected in asset prices, especially property prices, rather than in...

This paper uses a Merton-type estimate of the probability of default (PoD) for the main banks in a sample of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and middle-income countries as a proxy for the fragility of their banking systems. Based on theory and stylized facts, the paper...

This paper sets out a tractable model which illuminates problems relating to individual bank behaviour, to possible contagious inter-relationships between banks, and to the appropriate design of prudential requirements and incentives to limit 'excessive' risk-taking. Our model is rich enough to...

With goods prices being sticky, monetary impulses are initially transmitted to the real economy via changes in asset prices; and asset price fluctuations can independently affect monetary and real developments. Most empirical models try to incorporate such monetary-asset price interactions by...

Many of the world's developed economies have introduced, or are planning to introduce, bank bail-in regimes. Both the planned EU resolution regime and the European Stability Mechanism Treaty involve the participation of bank creditors in bearing the costs of bank recapitalization via the bail-in...

Between the 1980s and the 2000s, the largest ever positive labour supply shock occurred, resulting from demographic trends and from the inclusion of China and eastern Europe into the World Trade Organization. This led to a shift in manufacturing to Asia, especially China; a stagnation in real...

Since 2010 most Group of Twenty (G20) jurisdictions have introduced new recovery and resolution regimes to deal with bank failures. The common objective of these regimes is, first, to facilitate the orderly failure of financial institutions and, second, to redirect the bulk of losses to the...