Die Konjunktur in Deutschland befindet sich am Beginn einer Schwächephase. Es ist keineswegs ausgeschlossen, dass die Wirtschaft in eine Rezession gerät, für die Prognose ist allerdings unterstellt, dass eine solche Verschärfung nicht eintritt. Wir halten es dennoch für wahrscheinlich, dass...

An Englishman once watched his first American football game. He looked intently as the team gathered into a huddle after each play. His American host asked him what he thought of the proceedings. “Not a bad sport,” remarked the visitor, “but they do seem to engage in an excessive number of...

Table of Contents: I. External Challenges 12 1. The Transformation of Central and Eastern Europe 12 a. Trends in Central and Eastern Europe's Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) 12 b. The Impact on Germany 14 c. Political Consequences 14 2. Migration Pressures 16 a. The European Perspective 16 b....

International capital markets are far from functioning perfectly. During the last decade, they overshot both ways: The earlier boom of private capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) turned out to be the prelude to the drama of seriously impaired access to foreign capital in the late...

1. Make the national labor markets more flexible in order to avoid additional unemployment. 2. Do not Europeanize wage formation. 3. Leave employment a national responsibility. 4. Do not push for a social union. 5. Resist the political demand for transfers. 6. Accept the 'one-size-fits-all'...

Enhancing the competitiveness of German firms on foreign markets and preserving the attractiveness of Germany as a business location to foreign investors are the twin objectives of foreign economic policy (FEP) in Germany. Its scope extends far beyond conventional ?border? measures to encompass...

Das Papier untersucht die Rolle von Frühindikatoren bei der Erstellung von Konjunkturprognosen. Gegenstand der Analyse sind die Fragen: Welche Kriterien sollten Frühindikatoren generell erfüllen bzw. was sollten Frühindikatoren leisten? Inwieweit erfüllen die gängigen Indikatoren diese...

So far the contribution of New Economic Geography (NEG) has been mainly positive. Normative analysis and policy implications have lagged behind. The reason is the fear of the consequences of taking too literally the neat structure of the models. Under this respect the somewhat incautious aim of...