Showing 1 - 10 of 15
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002041399
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002041414
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002041422
Alfred Cuzán offers his postmortem on forecasts made for the midterm elections for the U.S. House of Representatives. His evaluation compares the judgment of three experts, six statistical models, and one (betting) prediction market. It seems like the best political forecasts emerge when...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009145451
We summarize the literature on the effectiveness of combining forecasts by assessing the conditions under which combining is most valuable. Using data on the six US presidential elections from 1992 to 2012, we report the reductions in error obtained by averaging forecasts within and across four...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011051409
In the Summer and Fall 2008 issues of Foresight, Randall Jones and Alfred Cuzan described 13 regression models used to forecast presidential elections and reported the models' forecasts for the 2008 US presidential election. Here is their audit of the results. Copyright International Institute...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005545456
With the November 2008 U.S. presidential election looming, Randall and Alfred describe the enduring forecasting models that have been created by economists and political scientists for predicting the results of this quadrennial ritual. The most stable models since 1996 have consistently forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005429880
At PoliticalForecasting.com, better known as the Pollyvote, the authors combine forecasts from four sources: election polls, a panel of American political experts, the Iowa Electronic Market, and quantitative models. The day before the election, Polly predicted that the Republican ticket's share...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005729478
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000533035
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000627109