The main contribution of this paper is to place smooth infinite economies in the setting of the equilibrium manifold and the natural projection map à la Balasko. We show that smooth infinite economies have an equilibrium set that has the structure of a Banach manifold and that the natural...

This paper analyzes a boundedly rational decision maker who is uncertain about his preference and faces the following trade-off: adding a good to the choice set has a positive option value but increases the complexity of the choice problem. The increased complexity is modeled as a reduction of...

In this paper we apply a dynamic factor model to generate out of sample forecasts for the inflation rate in Mexico. We evaluate the role of using a wide range of macroeconomic variables with particular interest on the importance of using CPI disaggregated data to forecast inflation. Our data set...

We are interested in forecasting bankruptcies in a probabilistic way. Specifically, we compare the classification performance of several statistical and machine-learning techniques, namely discriminant analysis (Altman's Z-score), logistic regression, least-squares support vector machines and...

In this paper we do a statistical analysis of the Mexican Consumer Price Index microdata set to characterize the rigidities of the price setting process in the different sectors of the Mexican economy. The microdata set goes from July 2002 to December 2009. Broadly, results show that there...

Using Mexican data on household time use and consumption, we find significant substitution between goods and time in home production and different elasticities of substitution for different household commodities. Adding these findings to the Ramsey optimal tax problem, we show it is optimal to...

We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best...

This paper extends recent research on the behaviour of the t-statistic in a long-horizon regression (LHR). We assume that the explanatory and dependent variables are generated according to the following models: a linear trend stationary process, a broken trend stationary process, a unit root...

Optimal tax theory has difficulty rationalizing high marginal tax rates at the upper end of the income distribution. In this paper, I construct a model of optimal income taxation in which agents’ preferences are interdependent. I derive a simple expression for optimal taxes that accommodates...

This paper examines the effect of macroeconomic releases on stock market volatility through a Poisson-Gaussian-GARCH process with time varying jump intensity, which is allowed to respond to such information. It is found that the day of the announcement, per se, has little impact on jump...