This paper analyzes the relation between exogenous changes in commodity export prices and the real exchange rate in a monetary economy. The traditional Dutch?Disease case is extended, and the monetary consequences of an export boom are explored. It is shown that commodity export booms can...

This paper introduces a way of testing the predictive power of structural models. Based on retail market scanner data for ground coffee in Germany during the period 2002 to 2012, I compare marginal cost estimates for coffee store brands from an out-ofsample prediction to estimates based on a...

In several countries temporary terms of trade improvements have led to a deterioration of the current account. Furthermore, many of these countries failed to attain greater post-boom growth rates. The point we make is that the structure of the fiscal process is critical in determining outcomes....

The reform, a key component of a larger economic recovery and adjustment operation, and of the agricultural sector strategy, focused on the liberalization of coffee and cocoa prices, their primary marketing and export, all previously regulated by a marketing board. The main objectives of the...

This brief includes the following headlines: structural changes in the global coffee market: the impact on Central America; economic effects of the coffee crisis; yields and production costs; effects of the crisis on employment in the coffee sector; responses to the crisis; strategies for...