In this paper, we analyze optimal monetary policy rules in a model of the euro area, namely the ECB's Area Wide Model, which embodies a high degree of intrinsic persistence and a limited role for forward-looking expectations. These features allow us, in large measure, to differentiate our...

In this article, we analyse the conduct of optimal monetary policy for the new euro area. The aggregate euro area economy is modelled to have relatively sluggish adjustment properties and a private sector with mainly backward-looking expectations. In this economy, we assume that the central bank...

Policymakers often use the output gap, a noisy signal of economic activity, as a guide for setting monetary policy. Noise in the data argues for policy caution. At the same time, the zero bound on nominal interest rates constrains the central bank's ability to stimulate the economy during...

This article compares two types of monetary policy rules - the Taylor-Rule and the Orphanides-Rule - with respect to their forecasting properties for the policy rates of the European Central Bank. In this respect the basic rules, results from estimated models and augmented rules are compared....