This paper examines the usefulness of asset prices in predicting recessions in the G-7 countries. It finds that asset price drops are significantly associated with the beginning of a recession in these countries. In particular, the marginal effect of an equity/house price drop on the likelihood...

By and large, EU financial integration has been a success story. Still, the reform agenda is far from finished. What are the remaining challenges going forward? What are the gains of closer financial market integration? This IMF book tracks the European Union's journey along the path to a single...

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Iceland has reached a relatively strong macroeconomic position with good growth prospects. Unemployment continues to trend down, now at 4 percent. Growth is expected to pick up to about 3 percent over 2015–17, supported by robust domestic...

This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Belgian economy has shown considerable resilience but the outlook is weighed down by weak demand in Europe. Healthy private balance sheets, integration with Germany, and employment support schemes have helped sustain employment and economic...

Änderungen der Notenbankzinsen sind in Deutschland wie in allen anderen westlichen Industrieländern das zentrale Instrument der Geldpolitik. Sie stellen den ersten Schritt im monetären Transmissionsprozeß dar. Die wichtigsten Notenbankzinsen sind in Deutschland der Pensionssatz, der...