This article analyses the role of technical progress in three models of the UK economy. In the standard neoclassical growth model, the growth of the economy is dictated by the growth rate of technical progress plus that of the population. Our two simulation experiments, increasing the level of...

This article analyses the properties of five leading macroeconometric models of the UK economy, in the light of the current discussion of monetary and fiscal policy-making. In simulation experiments, the interest rate and the basic rate of income tax are used to target the inflation rate and to...

This article examines the statistical issues surrounding the Bank of England's density forecast of inflation and its presentation as a 'fan chart'. The Bank's preferred central projection is the mode of the density but this underestimates 'average inflation over a number of years' in terms of...