This article explores the relationships among Libor, gold prices, the exchange rate, oil prices, fed funds futures prices and stock prices at a daily frequency. This article examines whether expected monetary policy, measured by changes in the prices of fed funds futures contracts, reacts to...

Asset prices may react to news through changes in expected monetary policy. We examine whether economic news directly affects expected changes in monetary policy, measured by changes in federal funds rate futures prices. Because these prices depend on monthly averages of the effective funds...

Despite financial economists' long-standing interest in the role of lender-borrower relationships in increasing the availability of funds to small businesses, many questions remain unanswered. Numerous empirical studies investigate the effect of relationships on the availability and terms of...

Recent work on expectations suggests that professional forecasters may have incentives that lead them to make more extreme forecasts than they would make were accuracy the only criterion. We use the interest rate and exchange rate forecasts from the Wall Street Journal?s panel of economists to...

This paper examines whether there is a systematic relationship between FOMC decisions and publicly available data that would potentially allow the public to anticipate FOMC policy changes. We characterize each FOMC decision as a move to tighten, ease, or leave policy unchanged and use ordered...

Recent research on the unobserved economy suggests that the phenomenon has important implications for both macroeconomic policy and public finance. This paper focuses attention on the public finance implications by developing a simple macro-model from which it is possible to derive a Laffer...