This article generalizes Savage's theory to include event-dependent preferences. The state space is partitioned into finitely many events. The induced.preferences over consequences are assumed independent of the underlying states within, but not across, these events. This results in an...

In the framework of subjective expected utility theory we develop two distinct procedures for the elicitation of a person's subjective probabilities when the initial endowment is random and unobservable. Procedures of the first kind rely on the boundedness of the utility function to elicit the...

Choice-theoretic definitions of subjective probabilities originated with the work of Ramsey and de Finetti and attained their definitive form in the work of Savage. These probabilities are intended to provide a numerical representation of a decision maker's beliefs regarding the likely...

In this article we study behaviorally consistent stopping rules in an unbounded search from a known distribution with no recall and with positive search cost. We show that if the searcher's preferences are quasi-convex in the probabilities, then behaviorally consistent search strategies in the...

Kicking off the discussion following Savage's presentation at the 1952 Paris colloquium, Arrow raised what he considered to be a difficulty with the intuitive interpretation of Savage's theorem. It suggests that decision makers strictly prefer betting on an event of measure zero over betting on...

This paper describes a direct revelation mechanism for eliciting agents' subjective probabilities. The game induced by the mechanism has a dominant strategy equilibrium in which the players reveal their subjective probabilities. Copyright 2009 The Econometric Society.

This paper describes a mechanism designed to induce commercial banks to increase their willingness to extend loans in an economic environment characterized by increased uncertainty and diminished expectations. This mechanism is a new tool for the conduct of monetary policy to combat recessions.