The terrorist attacks of September 11 have challenged the view that the U.S. economy is on the brink of recovery. This article discusses the effects of the attacks on real GDP taking the Kiel Institute's forecast of September 10 as the baseline scenario. The focus is on assessing the direct...

A contingent claims valuation model which allows to highlight the implications of program trading in spot markets for the pricing of European-style foreign currency options and for the volatility strike structure implicit in these contracts is devoloped. The curvature of the volatility strike...

The effectiveness of the foreign exchange market interventions conducted by the Deutsche Bundesbank during the Louvre period to alter either the level or the volatility of the $/DM spot rate is examined. Volatility quotes implicit in foreign currency options are employed to recover the impact of...

Previous studies have mainly used reports in the financial press to analyze the link between the interventions of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and exchange rate volatility. We use official intervention data for the period 1993-2000 that were released only recently by the BoJ and find that the...

We propose a framework for comparing the relationship between poverty and personal characteristics across countries (or across years), and use it to compare levels and patterns of relative poverty in the USA, Great Britain and Germany during the 1990s. The higher aggregate poverty rates in the...

One channel of business cycle shock transmission which gained attraction only recently is the confidence channel. The aim of the paper is to find out whether the confidence channel is actually working between the US and Germany. This is analysed using times series methods. In contrast to other...

The United States has a teenage birth rate that is high relative to that of other developed countries, and falling more slowly. Children of teenagers may experience difficult childhoods and hence be more likely to commit crimes subsequently. I assess to what extent lagged teen birth rates can...

This paper investigates the effects of macroeconomic volatility on non-financial firms' cash holding behavior. Using an augmented cash buffer-stock model, we demonstrate that an increase in macroeconomic volatility will cause the cross-sectional distribution of firms' cash-to-asset ratios to...

Parity-specific probabilities of having a next birth are estimated from national fertility data and are compared with nation-specific costs of having children as measured by time-budget data, by attitude data from the International Social Survey Program, and by panel data on labor earnings and...

The present paper tests for the existence of multicointegration between real per capita private consumption expenditure and real per capita disposable personal income in the USA. In doing so, we exploit the fact that the flows of disposable income and consumption expenditure on the one hand, and...