Foreign trade and macroeconomic policies under a Harris administration would largely provide for continuity with the Biden administration, while policies under another Trump administration would have the potential to be highly disruptive Regardless of who becomes the next president, US...

The US is Germany's largest trading partner, accounting for 11 percent of German exports and 7 percent of imports in 2023. Services comprise nearly 50 percent of German imports from the US and 30 percent of exports to the US, underscoring their significance in bilateral trade Germany maintains a...

The world is in a period of profound political and economic disruption The outcome of the US presidential election has the potential to accelerate this or contribute to the construction of a reformed and more legitimate international order How competition between the US and China is managed will...

"Oligarchy is a threat to the republic. Joseph Fishkin and William Forbath show that, for most of US history, Americans saw the Constitution as responding to that threat by imposing on legislators a duty to break up oligarchy, block corporate political power, and ensure a broad distribution of...

This paper explores and quantifies the role of endogenous firm entry in amplifying and propagating shocks to the economy. To this end, we estimate two DSGE models on US data with Bayesian methods: one model with endogenous firm entry and translog preferences and one model without. Both models...

Since 1991, survey expectations of long-run output growth for the U.S. relative to the rest of the world exhibit a pattern strikingly similar to that of the U.S. current account, and thus also to global imbalances. We show that this finding can to a large extent be rationalized in a two-region...

We combine an estimated monetary policy rule featuring time-varying trend inflation and stochastic coefficients with a medium scale New Keynesian framework calibrated on the U.S. economy. We find the impact of variations in trend inflation on the likelihood of equilibrium determinacy to be both...

This paper assesses the impact of adopting a post-grant review institution in the US patent system by comparing the 'opposition careers' of European Patent Office (EPO) equivalents of litigated US patents to those of a control group of EPO patents. We demonstrate several novel methods of...

With restricted-use data from the U.S. Census Bureau, I conduct an analysis of the macro- and micro-economic determinants of marrying. Based on observations across a broad segment of calendar years (from 1978 to 2010), I examine the measures of the national unemployment rate for males, national...

We formulate a model to explain why the lack of political competition may stifle economic performance and use the United States as a testing ground for the model’s predictions, exploiting the 1965 Voting Rights Act which helped break the near monpoly on political power of the Democrats in...