Some observers say the 1998–2006 housing boom led to the global financial crisis and the 2007–2009 recession. The causes of the housing boom however, are a matter of considerable debate. This study attempts to settle this debate by identifying the major contributing factors to the housing...

This paper provides an ordered probit approach that estimates the probability six months in the future of three distinct scenarios for prices: inflation, deflation, or price stability. The traditional way of forecasting inflation is to predict a single level and/or growth rate of the PCE...

In this paper we compare the size and the power of four cointegration tests in heterogeneous panel data, with both varying intercepts and slopes. These tests are (i) Kao (1999) Tests (both Dickey-Fuller (DF) and augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) types of cointegration tests in panel data), (ii)...

ABSTRACT This study re-examines the exchange rate-monetary fundamentals link with in a panel data framework. Pure time series and pooled time series-based tests fail to find empirical support for monetary exchange rate models (Sarantis (1994) and Groen (2000)). Using recently developed Panel...

This study provides evidence on human development-economic growth causality by employing a large macro panel dataset. We followed the UNDP's approach for human development. With the help of Hurlin (2004) fixed coefficient approach, we tested causality between human development and economic...

Quantifying the probability of U.S. recessions has become increasingly important since August 2007. In a data-rich environment, this paper is the first to apply a Probit model to common factors extracted from a large set of explanatory variables to model and forecast recession probability. The...