What is the probability of high inflation; how high, when? These questions are important to all investors since even the 2% level to which we are accustomed will cut an investor's portfolio by over 17% during a decade. This 2% level is the target of the Federal Reserve, along with near 0%...

The article analyzes the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy in Mexico. We calibrated a semi-structural model for a small open economy, based on Aguilar and Ramírez-Bulos (2018), for Mexico by using quarterly data from 2001Q1 to 2019Q4. The fiscal policy block models the fiscal...

This paper explores the evolution of Swedish fiscal policy from one extreme approach to another one in less than four decades. After the demise of the Bretton Woods-system in the early 1970s, Swedish fiscal policy was based on a Keynesian approach with the goal to stabilize the business cycle...

This paper derives a set of policy lessons for Portugal from the new fiscal framework including a fiscal policy council that gradually emerged in Sweden after the deep economic crisis of the early 1990s. By now, Swedish public finances stand out among the strongest in Europe. Recent Swedish...

This chapter recommends an alternative to the standard approach to economic stabilisation and growth policy for small open economies. The standard view, reflected in the analyses of the IMF, other international institutions, most think tanks and the media, is that a combination of credible...

The prevailing narrative about the Great Recession is that it was caused by a financial crisis. This paper refutes that explanation and offers an alternative, namely that issuance of bad government debt played a key role in escalating a regular recession to an economic crisis

We study the interactions between monetary and fiscal policies in the EU countries, for the period 1995-2019. Our results show notably that: i) the inflation rate has a relevant impact over the central banks’ decision making; ii) the cyclically adjusted primary balance reacts positively to...

This paper derives a set of policy lessons for Portugal from the new fiscal framework including a fiscal policy council that gradually emerged in Sweden after the deep economic crisis of the early 1990s. By now, Swedish public finances stand out among the strongest in Europe. Recent Swedish...

This paper aims to contribute to the empirical literature on the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. We consider the impact of monetary and fiscal policy shocks on inflation and output dynamics using a Time-Varying Parameter Factor-Augmented VAR (TVP-FAVAR). In baseline results from...

In 1998, following some 10 years of structural reforms that began during the late Soviet era under the Perestroika processes and continued after the collapse of the USSR, Russia has recorded its first year of economic growth. Then, with virtually no advanced warning, by the of August 1998,...