This paper analyzes the use of cash in the Euro area. It attempts to give at least a partial answer to the question of whether cash is predominantly used in the shadow economy and whether, consequently, the behavior of cash balances is useful in monitoring changes in the shadow economy. The...

This paper compares the GMM and measured expectations in estimating the conventional New Keynesian macro model for the Euro area and the United States. The use of measured expectations strongly reduces the importance of lagged output and inflation terms.

This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters’ data. We consider both inflation and real GDP growth forecasts at the micro level and explore forecast uncertainty using two alternative measures, i.e. conventional standard deviation of individual point forecasts...

We investigate the effect of government policies on fertility in a model where children are mainly seen as investment goods. To illustrate this effect we construct a simple overlapping generations economy in which households (parents) can invest both in children and financial assets. An...

This paper studies professional forecasts on a micro level using three alternative data sets. The analysis is mainly based on the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasts for the euro area, but for comparison, Consensus Economics survey and the Survey of Professional Forecasts for the US are also...

This article analyses the role of inflation expectations in the euro area. On the one hand, the question is how inflation expectations affect both inflation and output, and, on the other hand, how inflation expectations reflect developments in these variables. The analysis makes use of a simple...

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