The developed world stands at the fore of a phenomenal demographic transition. Over the next 30 years the number of elderly in the OECD countries will more than double. At the same time, the number of workers available to pay the elderly their government-guaranteed pension and health care...

Will incomes of low and high skilled workers continue to diverge? Yes says our paper's dynamic, six-good, five-region - U.S., Europe, N.E. Asia (Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong), China, and India -, general equilibrium, life-cycle model. The model predicts a near doubling of the ratio of high-...

Every country faces what economists call an intertemporal (across time) budget constraint, which requires that its government’s future expenditures, including the servicing of its outstanding official debt, be covered by its government’s future receipts when measured in present value. The...

This paper develops a large-scale, dynamic life-cycle model to simulate Russia’s demographic and fiscal transition under favorable and unfavorable fossil-fuel price regimes. The model includes Russia, the U.S., China, India, the EU, and Japan+ (Japan plus Korea). The model predicts dramatic...

The Tax Cut and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) made significant changes to corporate and personal federal income taxation, including limiting the SALT (state and local property, income and sales taxes) deductibility to $10,000. States with high SALT tend to vote Democratic. This paper estimates the...

Laurence J. Kotlikoff is Professor of Economics at Boston University, Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Fellow of the Econometric Society, and President of Economic Security Planning, Inc., a company specializing...