This paper presents a ""bridge model"" for short-run (one or two quarters ahead) forecasting of Italian GDP, relying on industrial production and survey indicators as key variables that can help in providing a real-time first GDP estimate. For a one- to two-year horizon, it formulates and...

This paper investigates the empirical relationship between competition in the financial sector and the creation of firms in the non-financial sector. It finds that bank competition has an overall positive effect on firm creation. However, consistent with theories of banking arguing that...

The paper provides a quantitative assessment of social returns to education in Italy. It shows that, after controlling for individual characteristics, local average human capital is positively correlated with individual wages, with estimated social returns between 2 and 3 percent. This result is...

This paper studies how the composition of fiscal adjustments influences their likelihood of “success”, defined as a long lasting deficit reduction, and their macroeconomic consequences. We find that fiscal adjustments which rely primarily on spending cuts on transfers and the government wage...

Financial integration is likely to entail EEC-wide convergence in both inflation rates and bank reserve requirements, thereby lowering some governments’ seignorage revenues. These revenue losses, however, may be offset by concomitant effects on exchange rate expectations and on interest rates...

This paper describes the institutional changes that have induced a decline in the vertical fiscal imbalance (VFI) - defined as the share of sub-national own spending not financed through own revenues - in four European countries: Belgium, Italy, Norway, and Spain. The decline in VFI was achieved...

This paper reviews economic developments in Italy during 1995–96. The performance of the Italian economy in 1996 was characterized by a marked decline in inflation and a strengthening of the external position, accompanied however by lackluster growth. The slowdown in economic activity was more...

This Selected Issues paper describes stylized facts, institutions, and directions for reform in the Italian labor market. The paper examines developments in aggregate features of the labor market. It highlights that during the latest cyclical recovery, total employment has remained stagnant and...

This paper focuses on selected aspects of Italy’s fiscal situation, its origins, and its pervasive economic consequences. The paper analyzes different aspects of regional duality and the unbalanced recovery. The paper highlights that regional duality is a salient feature of the Italian...

This paper reviews the flaws of the Italian tax system during the 1990s and the rationale for reform. The paper highlights that a fundamental reform of the tax system took place in 1971–73, and introduced three main innovations: the concentration of tax authority almost exclusively at the...