We apply a hidden Markov model of the term structure to modeling the Brazilian swap rate curve. We examine the model''s characteristics and its performance in describing the cross-sectional and time-series dynamics of the term structure. Two regimes are identified, a high level and a high...

This paper investigates the contagion from Russia to Brazil in late 1998 under two dimensions— players involved and the timing of events. The data does not seem to reflect a compensatory liquidation of assets story by international institutional investors. It does contribute, however, to the...

This paper provides econometric estimates of trade elasticities for Brazil obtained through cointegration and vector auto regression models and controlling for the effects of exchange rate volatility, capacity utilization, and changes in import tariffs. The results suggest that (i) recent market...

We characterize a country''s exchange rate regime by how its central bank channels a capital account shock across three variables: exchange depreciation, interest rates, and international reserve flows. Structural vector autoregression estimates for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey reveal such...

In the last two years the real has undergone a large depreciation and the central bank has missed its inflation target in 2002 for the second year in a row. Inflation, however, has increased much less than the rate of currency depreciation and the pickup in inflation in the last quarter of 2002...

More developed financial systems are associated with higher investment and better economic performance. This paper discusses possible factors that may inhibit a deepening of bank intermediation and more efficient banking in Brazil, two aspects that are found to be significantly different than in...

In times of distress when a country loses access to markets, there is evidence that credit default swap (CDS) spreads are a leading indicator for sovereign risk than the EMBI+ sub-index for the country. However, it is not easy to discern the variables that determine the level of CDS spreads in...

This report provides an assessment of fiscal transparency practices in Brazil. The authorities have completed the fiscal transparency questionnaire prepared by the IMF staff. The assessment has two parts that are discussed in this study. In the first part, descriptions of practice, prepared by...

Front Cover -- Governmental Financial Resilience: International Perspectives on How Local Governments Face Austerity -- Copyright Page -- Contents -- List of Contributo rs -- Chapter 1 Introduction: Governments and Crises -- Studying crises and austerity in the public sector -- An alternative...

The paper models the optimal debt management strategy of the public sector when issuing nominal, price-level-indexed and foreign-denominated debt securities. The model predicts that the variance of inflation, the size of the public debt, the variance of the real exchange rate, and the...