A framework is proposed for organizing phenomena related to the (mis)prediction of utility, in particular neglecting adaptation. A categorization is introduced that accounts for asymmetries in misprediction. In decision-making, goods and activities satisfying extrinsic desires are more salient...

We use a simple, three-item test for cognitive abilities to investigate whether established behavioral biases that play a prominent role in behavioral economics and finance are related to cognitive abilities. We find that higher test scores on the Cognitive Reflection Test of Frederick (2005)...

In this paper, we consider a decision-maker who tries to learn the distribution of outcomes from previously observed cases. For each observed sequence of cases the decision-maker predicts a set of priors expressing his beliefs about the underlying probability distribution. We impose a version of...

Two rationality arguments are used to justify the link between conditional and unconditional preferences in decision theory: dynamic consistency and consequentialism. Dynamic consistency requires that ex ante contingent choices are respected by updated preferences. Consequentialism states that...

The focus of this paper is on the use of staff policy recommendations in central banks. Based on the responses to a recent survey conducted by the Bank of International Settlements, the paper tries to answer two questions. (1) How (to what extent) do central bank decision-makers make use of...

On the basis of problems related to asymmetric information, self-governance has been proposed and often empirically found to be superior to the external imposition of rules in social dilemma situations. The present paper suggests and experimentally analyses a different line of argument, namely...

This paper examines the production, export and risk management decisions of a risk-averse competitive firm under exchange rate risk. The firm is export flexible in allocating its output to either the domestic market or a foreign market after observing the exchange rate. Export flexibility is...

There is an increasing demand for transport decisions to be made in thelight of some form of what may generically be called cost benefit analysis(CBA). The actual techniques may vary and often deviate quite significantlyfrom the conventional economic concept of CBA but in all cases theprocedures...