We examine the short-term performance of two alternative approaches to forecasting using dynamic factor models. The first approach extracts the seasonal component of the individual indicators before estimating the dynamic factor model, while the alternative uses the non-seasonally adjusted data...

In this note we subject some Canadian macroeconomic time series to test of seasonal and non-seasonal unit roots. Overall we find evidence that the series are integrated at some of the seasonal frequencies as well as at a zero frequency

In this paper we propose tests based on GLS-detrending for testing the null hypothesis of deterministic seasonality. Unlike existing tests for deterministic seasonality, our tests do not suff er from asymptotic size distortions under near integration. We also investigate the behavior of the...

In this research, a new class of time series models capturing dynamic seasonality is introduced. Unlike traditional seasonal models which focus mainly on the mean process, our approach can accommodate dynamic seasonality in the mean and variance processes. This feature allows us to perform...

In this paper we provide a simple MATLAB routine which computes the moving median with trend and seasonality. This approach is linear and for this reason has its disadvantages. So this routine can be improved by combining Monte-Carlo simulations, genetic algorithms simulations and wavelets...

In this paper, it is demonstrated by simulation that, contrary to a widely held belief, pure seasonal mean shifts - i.e., seasonal structural breaks which affect only the deterministic seasonal cycle - really do matter for Dickey-Fuller long-run unit root tests