data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies for the first and second moments of business conditions. We then use …

to examine the effects of crude oil volatility (VTOIL), the Geopolitical Risk Index (GPR), and the world uncertainty …: First, a negative shock of crude oil volatility can negatively affect the Saudi financial development. In addition … both negative and positive crude oil volatility shocks, the economic growth is more susceptible to a positive shock …

This paper proposes a Skewed Stochastic Volatility (SSV) model to model time varying, asymmetric forecast distributions … to estimate Growth at Risk as introduced in Adrian, Boyarchenko, and Giannone's (2019) seminal paper "Vulnerable Growth … volatility and asymmetric measurement densities. Estimating the model based on US data yields conditional forecast densities that …