We examine industrial output in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, and Romania during 1989–95 in terms of pretransitional product trade orientation. The growth of EU-oriented output within sectors of industry, ex-post trade, and market liberalization, is modeled as foreign direct investment induced...

This paper discusses the foundations for a medium-term fiscal framework for Bulgaria, a transition economy aspiring to join the European Union. The paper argues that a well-designed framework can help to enhance the credibility of macroeconomic policies and facilitate preparations for EU...

Like most transition economies, Bulgaria, Lithuania, and Mongolia suffered severe banking crises, which had to be resolved before growth could resume. The macroeconomic and institutional failings that led to these crises are described, and parallels are drawn with the causes of banking crises in...

The large capital inflows that generated a domestic demand boom in Bulgaria led to strong employment growth. But a sharp reduction in capital inflows led to a contraction of domestic demand, while the recession in Bulgaria’s trading partners caused a drop in exports. Public policies will also...

Bulgaria’s potential output growth in future could be markedly lower, and it may take considerable time for the excess labor and resources to be absorbed by other sectors, in particular by the export sector. This suggests that the natural level of rate of unemployment will rise and remain...

This paper examines Bulgaria’s 2004 Article IV Consultation and Ex Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement. Foreign direct investment inflows have been strong, reserves are rising, and competitiveness appears broadly adequate. Fiscal policy has been tightened in 2003, as the...

This paper discusses key findings of the Fourth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement for Bulgaria. Performance in 2006 was broadly satisfactory, although structural reform implementation was weaker than expected. Notably, the government postponed until mid-2007 the launching of the electronic...

This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes Data Module provides a review of Bulgaria’s data dissemination practices against the IMF’s special data dissemination standard, complemented by an in-depth assessment of the quality of the national accounts, consumer price index, producer...

Bulgaria's macroeconomic performance, in the face of the prolonged slowdown in the EU, has been impressive, but further efforts are required. The government's fiscal policy has underpinned recent economic success, and pressures to loosen such policies should be resisted. Fiscal reforms have...

This 2008 Article IV Consultation discusses that Bulgaria has been hit by the global financial crisis, with clear signs that the country’s capital inflows-driven boom has come to an end and that the real economy is slowing down. Executive Directors have commended the Bulgarian authorities for...