Did the decline in inflation rates from 2012 to 2015 and the low levels of market-based inflation expectations lead to de-anchored inflation dynamics in the euro area? This paper is the first time-varying event study to investigate the reaction of inflation-linked swap (ILS) rates - a...

We use a simple macroeconomic model proposed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to investigate the reasons for the recent sharp rise in inflation. Applied to Germany and the euro area, the model suggests that the surge in inflation has mainly been caused by commodity price shocks and supply...

The estimation of dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) turns out to be challenging in the presence of a small sample. It is exacerbated if the sample is characterized by a prolonged period of low interest rates near a time-varying effective lower bound. These challenges all weigh heavily when...