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The determinants of public deficit volatility

Agnello, Luca; Sousa, Ricardo M. - 2009

This paper empirically analyzes the political, institutional and economic sources of public deficit volatility. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models and a sample of 125 countries analyzed from 1980 to 2006, we show that higher public deficit volatility is typically...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605088

The impact of extreme weather events on budget balances and implications for fiscal policy

Lis, Eliza M.; Nickel, Christiane - 2009

This paper explores implications of climate change for fiscal policy by assessing the impact of large scale extreme weather events on changes in public budgets. We apply alternative measures for large scale extreme weather events and conclude that the budgetary impact of such events ranges...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605101

Forecasting the world economy in the short-term

Jakaitiene, Audrone; Dées, Stéphane - 2009

Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries …. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605105

Universal banks and corporate control: evidence from the global syndicated loan market

Ferreira, Miguel A.; Matos, Pedro - 2009

Banks play a role in the corporate governance of firms as well as acting as debt financiers around the world. Universal …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605112

How important are common factors in driving non-fuel commodity prices? A dynamic factor analysis

Vansteenkiste, Isabel - 2009

to separate common and idiosyncratic developments of commodity prices. Our estimation results show that there exists one …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605118

Signals from housing and lending booms

Bunda, Irina; Ca' Zorzi, Michele - 2009

The contribution of this paper is to revisit the Early Warning System (EWS) literature by analysing selected episodes of financial market crisis, i.e. those preceded by a spell of credit and real estate expansions. The aim is to disentangle instances when this constitutes a natural phenomenon...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605140

Memories of high inflation

Ehrmann, Michael; Tzamourani, Panagiota - 2009

Inflation has been well contained over the last decades in most industrialized countries. This implies, however, that memories of high inflation are likely to fade, because over time larger parts of the population have never experienced high inflation, whereas those who have might forget. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605141

Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates

Bussière, Matthieu; Ca' Zorzi, Michele; Chudik, Alexander - 2010

. The third issue discusses the uncertainty associated to the estimation of a reduced form relationship for the real … exchange rate, concluding that inference can be improved by panel estimation. The fourth and final issue addresses the presence … of strong and weak cross section dependence in panel estimation, suggesting which panel estimators one could use in this …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605197

Excess returns on net foreign assets: the exorbitant privilege from a global perspective

Habib, Maurizio Michael - 2010

This paper studies net foreign assets and the differential returns between gross foreign assets and liabilities for a sample of 49 countries between 1981 and 2007. It shows that investment income is more important than capital gains in imparting a drift to net foreign assets over the long-run,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605204

Global commodity cycles and linkages a FAVAR approach

Lombardi, Marco J.; Osbat, Chiara; Schnatz, Bernd - 2010

In this paper we examine linkages across non-energy commodity price developments by means of a factor-augmented VAR model (FAVAR). From a set of non-energy commodity price series, we extract two factors, which we identify as common trends in metals and a food prices. These factors are included...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605216