Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 also called the sovereignty of Belarus into question. The country served as a launching pad for the attack, thus becoming a co-aggressor. However, relations between Minsk and Moscow changed the longer the war has lasted. Belarusian...

In the European summer of 2027, the world faces a threat, not only to human health but also to biological diversity and food security. An alarming scenario is emerging: The rapidly thawing permafrost in the Russian tundra has released an unknown form of anthrax that is primarily transmitted by...

In its war of attrition against Ukraine, the Kremlin is counting on outnumbering the enemy over a long period in terms of both hardware and personnel. Following the unpopular partial mobilisation in autumn 2022, the recruitment of contract soldiers and volunteer fighters was stepped up...

This report highlights the effects of international sanctions on Russia's economic performance up to mid-2024. Despite monetary tightening, Russia's early 2024 economic growth remained strong due to a tight labor market and continued credit expansion. The fiscal outlook has improved with more...

In 2023, Russia experienced a 3.5% economic growth, but forecasts for 2024 indicate a slowdown to 1.5% due to tightened monetary policies and the expected global economic slowdown. Despite large military spending and Western energy sanctions eroding budget revenues, fiscal deficits have been...

Russia's foreign trade has shifted, causing a 30% depreciation in the Rouble due to declining oil prices and EU embargoes on Russian oil. While exports have decreased by 32%, imports have increased by 17% due to innovative ways to bypass trade sanctions. Despite EU restrictions, only around...

Surprise and jubilation in the United Nation Security Council (UNSC): 2028 begins with a bang. The permanent members of the body declare that they will voluntarily renounce their right of veto in cases of mass atrocities. This self-limitation, achieved after a long struggle, would have been...