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of sectoral labor input and total factor productivity trend growth variation on the persistent decline in long-run output …-term decline. Zooming into the reunification period, we find a pronounced decline of total factor productivity growth in …
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We propose a simple modification of Hamilton’s (2018) time series filter that yields reliable and economically meaningful real-time output gap estimates. The original filter relies on 8 quarter ahead forecast errors of a simple autoregression of real GDP. While this approach yields a cyclical...
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